Maybe.
I'm not really sure. And since I know my Violent readers are eagerly hanging on, and awaiting the news that a candidate has been given the highly coveted, and strenuously sought after "MadMan Approved" seal of approval, I figured I'd at least give you all a clue as to my thinking. So, rather than actively endorsing a candidate at this time, I will instead list what I see as the pros and con's of each candidate.
Rudy Giuliani -
Pros - Rudy has a history of managerial competence, in fact the turn around he caused in New York was nothing short of astonishing. Cleaning up New York as it was when he was first elected was a task worthy of Heracles 12 labors and, I might add, a job which many said could not be done. Furthermore his handling of the 9/11 attacks was nothing short of legendary and his approach to dealing with terrorism is suitably aggressive. A good law and order and National defense candidate. He also has a very aggressive tax cutting plan, which always scores high marks with The MadMan
Cons - Sadly, as strong as Rudy is on national security concerns, he's equally weak on domestic concerns. His stance on Gun control as mayor was not only illogical and unsupportable, I happen to believe it was unconstitutional as well. His well known support for gay marriage and hate crimes laws is similarly troubling, especially his support for hate crimes legislation, which is simply anti-American. Furthermore although he claims he will nominate "strict constructionist" judges who "revere federalism" his well known Pro-Choice beliefs are very concerning.
Overall - While there is much to Admire about Rudy, and his positions, there is just as much cause for concern. While i would certainly vote for him over any of the Muppet's in the democratic field, I would not do so enthusiastically at this time. Over all Id give the probability of Rudy Earning my support at the 50% level.
Mitt Romney
Pros - Mitt Romney has, without a doubt, the greatest level of economic intelligence in the entire Presidential field. His experience speaks to a vast reservoir of managerial competence and his economic policies are among the most well thought out of any of the candidates. Furthermore his past as a business leader and his work on the Salt Lake City Olympics suggest he would have the right qualities to lead us through any economic recessions that might result from our current economic turbulence.
Cons - While I find Mitt Romney a very appealing candidate on the economic side, his core philosophy seems more problematic. In particular the "Health care Reform" he spearheaded in Massachusetts would seem to suggest a sympathy with liberal sensibilities I find disturbing. Now the case has been made that this particular program was the practical effect of Mitt being a republican governor in a very liberal state, but it could also suggest a core belief in Statism, at least to a degree. In addition Mitt has nor foreign policy expertise or experience as far as I can tell, which is a major problem given the challenges America will face going forward.
Overall - Overall I put Romney in the same boat as Rudy, although there is much about his platform to admire, there is much to be wary of as well. Chances The MadMan will endorse Romney? 50%
Mike Huckabee -
Pros - About the only pro I can list for governor Huckabee, is that he supports the Fair Tax, which is in and of itself, a fairly conflicted point of support. While I appreciate what Fair-taxers" are trying to accomplish, I tend to think they have chosen a very illogical way of going about it. Its true that the "Fair-tax" as envisioned by its supporters would be a huge step in the right direction, if the income tax were repealed. I tend to agree with Fred Thompson that its more likely we would get both a income and consumption tax out of the proposal.
Cons - Where do i begin? First of all the guy strikes me as a republican jimmy carter, which, as you know violent reader, is not a compliment. Most of his economic ideas are more democratic than republican, his populist stances are idiocy, and his desire for a nationwide smoking ban is anti-American. On top of which he doesn't believe in evolution which speaks volumes about his intelligence, or should I say, lack thereof.
Overall - Overall there is almost no way in hell I would vote for Mike Huckabee. I give him a 10% chance, and that's being generous.
Ron Paul
Pros - I cant find any. The crazy midget from Texas is an all around whackadoo. From his stance on Iraq to his endorsement of the Gold Standard, Ron Paul is, to be blunt, a fucking whack job.
Cons - Too many to list, the guy thinks we should pull out of Iraq immediately, recall all our soldiers from all overseas bases, and never ship them out again. He endorses the gold standard which is one of the worst economic ideas of all time, and he is surrounded by tin-foil types, 9/11 truthers, and assorted other conspiracy minded lunatics.
Overall - I would rather shove a glass rod up my penis and hit it with a hammer than vote for this maniacal midget.
John McCain
Pros - John is the "security candidate", a former Vietnam POW and one of the few people in Washington to not only criticise President's Bush's strategy in Iraq, but to actually offer a solution beyond "pull out now" there is no doubt that John McCain has the expertise and understanding necessary to lead America through the long war. Furthermore on pure "electability" concerns his well known ability to pull in independent voters may be necessary to winning the Presidency. When compared to the Democratic presidential field McCain is the only candidate who (at this early point) polls show could beat the democratic front runners.
Cons - His stance on Immigration, in which he and Ted Kennedy were allied, is troublesome, as was his opposition to the "Bush Tax Cuts" in 01 and 03. Furthermore his stances on Campaign Finance reform has caused more trouble that it ended, and as usual shows a sympathy for liberal approaches which I don't really appreciate.
Overall - despite the issues I have with John, overall he would make a pretty good president, so long as he didn't work too closely with the Dem's. Chances the MadMan will endorse John McCain? 65-75%
Fred Thompson -
Pros - Saving the best for last, we finally come to Right said Fred, the true and clear conservative in the race. From his stances on immigration, to federalism, to dealing with the terrorist threat, Mr Thompson is dead on in his stances. I've been reading his policy and position papers, as well as his articles in various papers since before he made the official announcement, and his laconic style speaks to his comfort in his own skin. Fred Thomson is an authoritative, reasoned, learned, intelligent, and centered candidate who would, IMO, be an excellent president.
Cons - Can he get elected? Will his confident, unhurried style resonate with voters outside of the south, or even within it? I don't know, there's been much ado made in media circles as to whether or not Fred has the "fire in his belly" necessary to wage a successful campaign, and while I usually pay no attention to the talking and frequently empty heads the networks allow to pollute the airwaves, on this point they may be right. Then again his performance in the last few debates has been stellar.
Overall - I'm waiting for the results from SC to come in. If Fred can win, or at least make as strong second place showing there, he might yet have a chance to build up some momentum, if not, I suspect he will pull out shortly. Go Fred!
Chances of the MadMan voting for Fred? If he can wage the type of campaign necessary to gain the nomination, 99% or better.
One thing I have learned doing Emergent Ventures
7 hours ago
5 comments:
So the chances of you voting for any candidate work out to roughly 270%. Nice math skills there.
Just in case you dont understand anonymous' snark, when working on odds as a % the total is supposed to add up to a 100% (including margin to favour the house or booky if you're talking gambling. Ie. the payout total on a roullette wheel is 98%- giving a predicted 2% income to the house over time). It's good to see, the first time ive pooped back here in a while, that you still don't bother actually learning anything before you give your opinion. take care.
when working on odds as a % the total
-------------------------------------
assumption.
If I flip a coin 49 times, and it comes up heads 49 times, what are the odds of it coming up heads the 50th?
The odds of the coin coming up heads the 50 time is 50%, on that throw, the odds of it coming up tails is 50%. 50 + 50 equals 100. BUT if, before you started tossing the coin you wanted to figure out the odds on getting heads 50 times in a row, well the answer's .04%, as is the chance of any other combination of 50 tosses of the coin in a row (ie it might be heads 7 times, then tails twice, heads again, tails 12 times, heads 18 more times, then tails, then heads and so on up to the 50th throw; the odds of that happening are also .04% and their are 2500 possible orders 50 throws could go; 2,500 possible combinations time x .04% chance that any one of those combinations could happen equals 100 frickin %). Not an assumption. Maths. If your %s meant something else other than the chance that you would vote for them; learn to bloody well phrase your thoughts better.
Actually thats wrong! There are way more combinations than that- those are the odss on getting a specific combination of 50 chances in one (say the spin of a wheel with 50 numbers on it) twice, not the odds on a one in two chance (coin tost) 50 times. Odds on that for a specific order are way worse. (I rushed my post, I'll admit, sorry). But the overall point still stands that the odds of 50 coinc tosses are a tiny tiny % and if you add up all the percentages on the possibible combinatiosn it'll equal 100.
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